Archive for the 'Investing' Category
When looking at global macro investing it is useful to first define it. Macro trading is simply looking across the globe and across asset classes to determine where are the best opportunities on an absolute and risk adjusted basis. If the Ghana stock market looks great then invest there. If US Treasuries look good then trade them. If the Russian Ruble looks like it will be devalued then short it. Basically do not use any artificial constraints and simply invest where the money is.
Many investors get stuck looking at the same market over and over looking for opportunity. Global macro traders look at anything that may give the best return. They look for the biggest bang for their buck on a risk and absolute basis.
So why would we want to look at other asset classes and countries? One of the reasons is diversification. many pundits talk about diversifying as some type of holy grail. And yet they don’t adequately diversify you. They will put some in stocks and some in bonds and call it good. Global macro investors will instead look at countries as well asset classes to determine where is the best trade. They look at stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, real estate, and even private equity.
Of course if you believe the school of Chicago thought that the markets can’t be beat then you probably think that being in a US stock index fund such as the SP500 is a good bet and you will sit there. Of course while you may eventually make money doing this you also need a long holding period. What the indexers fail to tell you is that the markets have gone nowhere for 20 years at a time more then once. That means you may have to wait for year sot make any money at all.
Lets look at some of the problems with the by and hold approach. If you buy hold stocks the truth is that you would have suffered negative returns from 1962-1982 and from 1997 to 2008 so far. That doesn’t include the depression or inflation which makes it even worse. So unless you are immortal you will need to find a better solution to reach any financial goals.
Obviously this is not a sound investment plan. If you look at the years 1970-1984 you would have barely made over 4% a year. When you take into account the high inflation that was present during much of the 1970s, you realize that it actually took 20 years to get back to breakeven. If you look at the current time period”early 2009″you can see that once again we are negative for the last ten years (remember, each point on the graph represents your return if you had invested 10 years previously and held). If you had bought the SP500, 10 years ago you would be down around 25% right now. And again, this is before inflation. In fact if you had bought 20 years ago you would only be up 235% for the whole period which comes out to 4.6% a year. And again, this is before factoring in inflation, which brings your real return down even more.
Sitting for 10 and even 20 years on negative returns have you down on investing? If you are like most investors you are frustrated and need help. Look at different investment styles that are really different. A new stock picking strategy is not much different then buying an index of stocks. Instead open your eyes to different asset classes and countries and find the best risk to reward opportunities the world over. Global macro trading allows you to see it all.
Global macro trading can be lumped into two main camps. Relative value and directional. Relative value trades asset classes against each other when their historical relationships are out of whack. Directional trading is when you place a trade because you feel the underlying asset is going to make a big move and you already think you know the direction.
Some traders do their fundamental work and then buy or short based solely upon what they think the asset will do. Others trade purely on gut feel. Some are technically oriented and deemed technicians and look at charts and other price action based studies.
Traders that only use fundamental analysis typically hold positions for long periods of time and feel that their edge is in their valuation skills. When they are right they can do very well but at times they are worng and have large drawdowns.
Traders who use pure gut feel tend to also have very volatile results. While they will enjoy the occasional big gain they will also be wrong on a regular basis. The main factor that will separate the winning gut traders from the losing ones is how fast they are at admitting when they are wrong. If you can’t take a loss then you will lose when trading off of pure gut feel.
Some traders look only at technical analysis and as long as they use proper risk management they can be very successful. In fact one famous fund manager says that at the end of the day he is a slave to the tape and proud of it. Technical analysis doesn’t tell us if a position is under or overvalued but only tells us what the price has done.
CTA trend followers are the largest group of automatic traders. They are 90% of the managed futures industry and like technicians they use price action. As opposed to most however their system is truly automatic and along with a risk management algorithm they trade in futures markets across the globe.
The last type of trader that we look at is the one who realizes that there is value in all the approaches. They will look at a chart, use fundamentals, their own judgment, and solid risk management. Using all of this they are better able to make consistent out sized gains along with lower drawdowns.
The federal government has never had as large a role in the economy as it now does. Barack Obama will have more power to influence markets than any other leader in history. He is coming to power during a massive recession, as housing prices and markets crumble, and the federal government is printing money like crazy to try to pay its bills.
Boomberg News reports that total federal commitments to financial rescue efforts have ballooned to $8.5 trillion. Despite this enormous transfer of wealth, Obama recently announced another $1 trillion stimulus package he intends to push when he assumes the presidency.
The magnitude of these cash flows is enormous. Policy drives markets now more than ever. The larger the role government plays in the economy the more imperative it is to understand how policies affect investments.
At the macro level, federal policies affect the dollar, interest rates, and growth or contraction of the money supply, i.e. inflation or deflation. At a lower level, direct transfers of wealth benefit the companies that are on the receiving end, and harm those from whom profits were taken. “Obamanomics: A Guide to Investing Over the Next Administration” (www.learnobamanomics.com/book) helps you understand exactly how Obama’s policies will affect your portfolio.
Expect union-heavy industries-like automotive, airline, and steel-to prosper as taxpayers assume the burden of employee health care and trade policy changes to protect domestic businesses. Stay away from the defense industry as both the War in Iraq scales down and long-term acquisition programs are cut. But look towards “green” businesses, carbon-efficient utilities that will benefit from cap-and-trade emissions regulation, and alternative sources of energy that will have wind-fall piles of cash thrown their way.
Obama’s policies are well known, so now is the time to start considering how they will impact markets and your portfolio. Read my book and visit www.learnobamanomics.com to stay on top of new policy direction. Don’t let yourself get caught on the wrong side of the policy game!
You’ve had more than your share of difficulties in the last few months. You’ve lost a loved one or been through a difficult divorce. You’ve lost a job or had to change jobs. You’ve lost your health and have medical expenses stacking up. Maybe you’re struggling with increased utility prices or fuel expenses or an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) that is unbearable. Perhaps, your property tax bill has gone through the roof.
While you’re trying to think of how to stop foreclosure on your home, you’re getting near constant calls, letters and knocks on your door from foreclosure investors.
These people are foreclosure investors; they make their money by pursuing homeowners who are on the verge of losing their homes, buying your home and selling it for a profit. They are operating on the assumption that you will have no choice but to sell your home.
While on a surface it may seem like a good idea to sell your home to these foreclosure investors in somecases, but before you do so you should look into the alternatives. Definitely do not sell your home to one of these investors before checking out your other options, such as rearranging your loan.
You Can Stop Foreclosure Through A Workout Of Your Loan
If you have missed a few payments, your credit score will drop dramatically; once this data is on your credit report, it will be difficult if not impossible to get a new loan to refinance your existing mortgage.
However, mortgage lenders would really rather not end up owning your home; this is why every mortgage lender has a loss mitigation department which tries to work with homeowners who are in default on their mortgages to bring them back onto a timely payment schedule. Unlike refinancing your mortgage with a new loan, this loss mitigation process does not require getting a credit approval, putting this alternative within reach for homeowners who are in default.
If You Do Work Out a Repayment Plan, Beware of the Challenges
The loss mitigation departments at mortgage lenders tend to be understaffed, especially right now with mortgage defaults on the rise. The employees in these departments do their best but have very little time to devote to each homeowner’s case file. This means that lenders tend to offer you a standard repayment plan which may not meet your needs, for example, the monthly payments will likely be too high for your budget and the time limit given to get back on track far too short.
With the difficult situation you are in, you may be tempted to take this repayment plan offered to stop foreclosure; however, this is generally just a short-term solution. Since the terms of the repayment plan are not a realistic fit for your budget, you will as likely or not be facing foreclosure again in a matter of months.
Stop Foreclosure By Hiring Foreclosure Workout Companies
You may be much better off by hiring a professional to handle the loss mitigation process for you. These companies know the ins and outs of the loss mitigation process and often have strong relationships with mortgage lenders nationwide. They have successfully helped thousands of homeowners stop foreclosure.
They’ll review your finances with you to come up with a realistic repayment plan that’ll give you a lot more time and keep your payments at a comfortable level to assure your successful completion of the plan. They have insider’s information about variety of programs a given lender may have. In some cases they may be able to negotiate an interest reduction to lower your loan payments.
You may think that these services will be too expensive, given your financial difficulties; however, most of these services charge a low flat fee, usually about a months payment. With the money and time these negotiations can save you, they usually more than pay for themselves? They can often even negotiate a deferral of your next payment.
How to Cut Your Losses if Loss Mitigation is Not in Your Plans
If the lender mediation process won’t work for you, then you will need to sell your home to keep from having a foreclosure record on your credit report. If there is enough time before foreclosure, you best bet is to list your home with a realtor, this will let you get a better price for your home. If your foreclosure is imminent, however, you may have no alternative but to sell to an investor. These companies can buy your home quickly, just make sure that they have the means to close the deal quickly, before your home goes into foreclosure.
The Direct Stock Plan operates differently than buying stock through a broker. There is no commission charged for these stock plans, but there can be a small fee. The other difference is that the company buys and sells the stock at a given time. The investor cannot sell or trade stocks at will. The investor may turn the stocks over to a broker to sell, but the broker cannot charge a commission. You may be charged a fee by the company. It depends on your agreement.
One advantage of a company that allows a private investor to purchase stocks directly this would allow you to set up a pay check withdrawal each pay period for the purposes of the stock plan. There are various advisory services that can assist you in locating companies that offer this direct stock purchase plan. I would suggest that you find companies you are interested in a make an inquiry with investor relations.
It will astound you the number of very good companies that will allow you to buy stocks direct by setting up a plan. The ranges of possibilities include; utility companies, fast food stocks, entertainment and retail stocks.
Investing in utilities
There was a time in our recent history that investing in utility stocks was like opening up a pass book savings account. Today, the investor needs to be more cognizant of the companies’ compliance with various regulations and their current stance on applying new and efficient technology. The increase in demand and a need for power plants and distribution has placed a burden on the utilities sector.
One example of a good utility stock is American Electric Power Company. It trades on the NYSE under the stock ticker AEP. This is a public utility holding company that transmits, generates and distributes power to a variety of utility companies. Some of these utility companies are cooperatives, municipal power companies and smaller utility companies.
There are some very good diversified utility companies that are consistent performers. Wisconsin Power & Electric trades on the NYSE as WEP. This company is a consistent performer and recently provide a large credit to its customers. It has a 5.9 billion market capitalization. The company is owned by some of the biggest funds in the country. It sells for $44 and has a mean target of $50.
Knowing how to trade in Forex is simply just not enough to be successful. In this largest and the most liquid financial market in the world, you need to have more than the knowledge and skills to be successful. You need to know about the different things involved in Forex to earn huge amounts of money.
Simply knowing how to trade Forex and about the major currencies traded, like the US dollar, the Japanese Yen, and others are just the basics. Knowing when to trade and what to trade is equally essential to be successful in Forex.
For these you need to have a trading strategy. So, what exactly are the trading strategies involved in Forex? There are a number of money making strategies that you can use when trading in the Forex market.
Before we get into forex trading strategies, realize that forex trading is different than the stock market as are the trading strategies. When used appropriately, forex trading strategies can earn you huge profits in the market.
One strategy, the leverage Forex trading strategy, is one where you borrow money to increase your available trading funds. By not having to front all your trading funds solely, you increase your earning potential.
By utilizing leverage, your money can quickly turn $1 into $100. There is risk involved and a successful trader will minimize the risk. This is done by utilizing stop loss orders. The leverage trading strategy is one of the most commonly used to make large amounts of money using “other people’s money.”
In the stop loss order strategy, the Forex trader creates a predetermined point in the trade where the investor will not trade. As mentioned before, you can use this strategy to minimize risk and minimize loss. However, this strategy can also backfire to you, as the Forex trader. This is because you may run the risk of stopping your trades when the value of the currency goes higher than expected.
Forex trading is a 24 hour market where you can trade anytime and anywhere you are. If you think that the Forex market conditions are good at a specific time, then you can trade at that specific time.
With trading Forex, you also do not need to worry about tightening of the market. It is the most liquid market in the world. This means that anytime you want to either enter or exit the market, there will be someone to trade with. Plus there are no daily trading limits.
Some additional tips to successfully trade Forex is as follows:
1. The most expensive ticks usually are the first and the last ticks. To maximize profits enter early and exit late.
2. Do not add fuel to the fire when in a losing trade thinking that you will recover. Minimize your losses.
3. Trade along with the trends to increase your chances for profitable trades.
Tools are available to forex traders. Charts are pretty important particularly for a speculative trader. Charts can be used to predict future currency movements by identifying market trends. There is never a 100% guarantee that your predications will actually come to fruition, but charts are the necessary when analyzing the market.
There are different types of charts that are used such as daily charts, hourly charts and 5 minute charts. It is important that a trader learns to read them correctly. This will help you understand what is going on in the market and identify potential market trends to cash in on.
By learning how to read charts you will not only increase you profit potential, but you are also minimizing risks.
These are some of the strategies and tips that you should keep in mind in order to minimize the risks in Forex trading and maximize your earning potential. Depending on your skills and how you apply your strategies, you can really make a lot of money in the Forex market. However, to be a truly successful Forex trader, you need to accept the fact that you will sometimes lose money. Never get discouraged when you do. Analyze where you made your mistake, think of a solution to get back what you lost and continue trading.
Serious investors purchase gold and silver coins from a variety of countries and time periods. One of the most popular coins in many investor portfolios are the pre-1920 Russian gold coins.
Russian Imperial gold coins, available in years from 1897 to 1909, are considered to be a solid and safe investment. Whether gold coins were issued as rubles, multiples of rubles, or in older versions of gold called ducats, novodels or gold kopeks, the demand for Russian gold coin samples has always outweighed supply.
Pre-1912 era Russian gold coins are generally available in denominations of five rubles, 10 rubles, and 15 rubles. Some of the more favored pure Russian gold coins include but are not limited to:
Alexander III – Gold 10 Markkaa 1882
Nicholas II – Gold 20 Markkaa 1912
Nicholas II – five rubles 1897
Nicolas II – five rubles 1898
Nicolas II – five rubles, 1900
Measuring anywhere 18 mm with a .1244 gold content, the five rubles minted between 1895 to 1911 are not so easy to find any longer. Gold 150 denomination rubles measuring in at 29.5 mm, with a .5000 gold content, Russian coins are a solid investment of minimal expenditures for most collectors and investors.
Though more simplistic in design than many gold coins, Russian gold coins favoring busts of Nicholas II are favorites in a multitude of denominations.
Imperial Russian gold coins are a must-have for most collectors and investors interested in the history and legacy left by gold coin minting throughout the world. Owning pre-1920 old Russian gold coins are a great addition to any collection that will be treasured for years to come.
The Forex is a foreign exchange market for money. This is where everyone trades on currency, buying one that they think will rise and selling another that they think will fall.
The profits that are made in the Forex market are made by the difference in the two currencies that are being traded. Currencies in the Forex market are sold in pairs of currencies that are pitted against one another.
With the elimination of the gold standard, major international currencies fluctuate constantly throughout the world market. Therefore, even minor changes in currency values can provide a profit or loss for the holder.
More than $1.5 trillion are traded every day in the Forex market. That’s more than 100 million times that of the NYSE, one of the largest in our world. Forex is really the giant among all the speculation markets. Only 5% of trades are done to change any currency for business or travel.
The Forex market is a virtual market. There is no meeting place for the buyers and the sellers, or a specific building, where the brokers hang out. Instead all of the trading is, literally, done online or by phone.
A Forex trading day spans six continuous days. Starting in Sydney, it moves to Tokyo then to Frankfurt, London and then New York before going back to Sydney. The Forex trading week closes in New York on Friday night. At any time of the day or night, someone is trading on the Forex market during this week.
Due to the longer trading hours available to investors, they are able to accurately estimate on what is happening across the world in other markets. When another market reports any increase or drop, this represents the current state of the market.
Anyone who owns, trades, or collects gold coins would not have a complete collection without a German 20 Mark Gold coin piece. These beautiful gold coins display a wonderfully detailed profile of Kaiser Wilhelm and were minted between 1871 and 1913.
Kaiser Wilhelm, the King of Prussia, was the most powerful man in all of Europe for many years. Otto von Bismarck became the King of Prussia in April of 1871 and united the Alsace-Lorraine region of French and German territories.
The German 20 Mark gold coin is one of the most famous of German gold coins in the world. Otto von Bismarck created common currencies as well as a central bank and legal system.
The German Mark is a popular and common unit of money that was found throughout much of Europe and Germany before the unification of Germany. A wide variety of German gold coins were minted in the following 60 years, using different standards and materials.
Standard gold coins have been available in 20 Mark denominations since 1871. As Prussia was the largest and wealthiest of all the provinces within the Prussian Empire at the time, these coins are especially coveted by collectors and investors from around the world. The German 20 Mark gold coin was issued between 1871 to 1913, measures 22.5 cm in diameter and contains a .2304 gold content.
The obverse side of the head displays Kaiser Wilhelm’s profile facing right, surrounded by the words, Wilhelm Deutscher Kaiser Knig V. Preussen. Otto von Bismarck Kaiser Wilhelm is considered to be the father of the German Empire. He served as Germany’s First Chancellor.
The other side displays the familiar Deutsches Reich German Eagle with wings spread and the 20 Mark denotations. The Kaiser Wilhelm II coin displays the profile of Wilhelm II, who was the last Kaiser of Germany. The edge is exquisitely designed with leaves and cinquefoils and lettering.
Are you wondering whether you should invest in American Eagle Gold Proof Sets versus the American Eagle Gold Bullion coin sets? You’re not alone. Many gold bullion investors often wonder which version of the two they should purchase. Gold proof? Or gold bullion? The answer depends upon your reason for wanting to purchase the coin in the first place.
Are You An Investor Or A Collector?
Typically, gold is purchased as a hedge against inflation, a declining dollar or as an insurance policy against financial catastrophe. Both the American Gold Eagle Proof coin and the American Gold Eagle bullion coin are the same size, and contain the same quantity and guaranteed quality of gold. Let’s look at the differences between the two types of gold:
American Eagle Gold Proof Coin Sets
1. Are special collector’s edition coins
2. Are produced in limited quantities
3. Struck at a higher quality standard
4. Comes pre-packaged in a protective blue velvet, satin lined case
5. Are shipped with a certificate of authenticity
6. Are available for sale directly from the U.S. Mint
If love to collect beautiful coins that have the potential to increase in value not only for its gold content but for its collectibility, go with the proof version!
American Eagle Gold Eagle Bullion Coin Sets
1. Value is determined soley by the current market price of gold at the time the coin is purchased or sold.
2. Are not purchased for their age or rarity
3. Are not available for sale from the U.S. Mint
4. Must be purchased from an authorized dealer
If your main goal is to purchase the American Gold Eagle coin in order to capitalize on the rising price of gold, with the hope of selling and making a profit down the road, go with the bullion version!
eBay can be a great place to find some of the rare, earlier dated gold proof sets. However, before buying any American Eagle Gold Proof Set online, please be sure the seller is reputable and has a high, positive feedback number!
